Kelly Criterion Calculator - Mathematically Optimal Position Sizing

Calculate the optimal bet size using the Kelly Criterion formula. Enter your win rate and average win/loss ratio to find the mathematically optimal risk per trade.

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Win Rate (%)

Average Win ($)

Average Loss ($)

32.50%

Full Kelly %

16.25%

Half Kelly

8.13%

Quarter Kelly

2.00

Win/Loss Ratio

💡 Why Use This Kelly Criterion Calculator?

The Kelly Criterion is the formula used by blackjack professionals and hedge funds to maximize long-run growth. Enter your historical win rate and average win/loss ratio to calculate the mathematically optimal percentage of your capital to risk on each trade.

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Pro Tip: Use half-Kelly (50% of the Kelly output) in practice - full Kelly is theoretically optimal but causes uncomfortable drawdowns that lead to emotional deviations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Kelly Criterion formula for crypto trading?›

Kelly % = W − (1−W)/R, where W = win rate and R = average win/average loss ratio. With a 55% win rate and 1:1.5 R:R, Kelly recommends risking 18.3% - use half-Kelly (9.15%) in practice.

Is Kelly Criterion useful for crypto trading?›

Yes, especially for systematic traders with documented win rates. It prevents both over-risking (which causes ruin) and under-risking (which leaves profits on the table). Requires at least 50-100 trade samples for accuracy.

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